Archive for the ‘BCS Bowls’ Category.

BCS NCG preview

#1 Florida State has not previously played in the BCS NCG, but is 1-2 in other BCS title games and is 2-5 in all BCS bowls. The Seminoles are 10-11 vs. the SEC in the BCS era. #2 Auburn is 1-0 in the BCS NCG and 2-0 in BCS bowls. The Tigers are 4-6 vs. the ACC in the BCS era.

The Florida State Seminoles are 13-0, 9-0 in the ACC, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and seeking their third quality win of the season. The Auburn Tigers are 12-1, 8-1 in the SEC, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and going for a fifth quality win & second upset win.

The ACC is 51-75 vs. the SEC in the BCS era, 4-13 in BCS bowls, and 1-2 in BCS title games.   The SEC 17-9  in BCS bowls and 9-1 in BCS title games

Orange Bowl Preview

#12 Clemson  lost its previous  Orange Bowl  appearance – the only BCS bowl it has played in.  #7 Ohio State is 6-3 in BCS bowls, but has not played in the Orange Bowl previously.  A victory would mark the second  time that a team has won all four of the traditional (non BCS NCG) bowls.  The Buckeyes are 3-1 vs. the ACC in the BCS era.

The Clemson Tigers are 10-2, 7-1 in the ACC, 1-1 in AQ OOC games, and seeking their second quality win  & first upset win of the season.  The Ohio State Buckeyes are 12-1, 8-1 in the Big Ten, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get their second quality win .

The ACC is 2-9 in the Orange Bowl and 3-13 in BCS bowls.  The Big Ten is 3-1 in the Orange Bowl and 13-14 in BCS bowls.

The ACC is 0-3 vs. the Big Ten in the Orange Bowl, 0-3 in BCS bowls, and 17-22 in all games during the BCS era.

Sugar Bowl Preview

#3  Alabama is 0-1 in the Sugar Bowl and 3-2 in BCS bowls.  The Crimson Tide is 4-3 vs. Big 12 teams in the BCS era.  #11 Oklahoma is 0-1 in the Sugar Bowl and  3-5 in BCS bowls.  A victory would mark the first time that a team has won all four of the traditional (non BCS NCG) bowls.  The Sooners are 3-4 against  SEC teams in the BCS era.

Alabama  is 11-1, 7-1 in the SEC, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get its third quality win of the season.  Oklahoma is 10-2, 7-2 in the Big 12, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and seeking its second quality win & third upset win.

The SEC is 7-6 in the Sugar Bowl and 17-8 in BCS bowls.  The Big 12 is 0-2 in the Sugar Bowl and 19-11 in BCS bowls.

The SEC is 1-0 vs. the Big 12 in the Sugar Bowl, 2-1 in BCS bowls, and 31-21 in all games during the BCS era.

Fiesta Bowl Preview

#6 Baylor will make its first BCS bowl appearance – in the Fiesta Bowl.  #15 Central Florida is also debuting  in a BCS bowl.

The Baylor Bears are 11-1, 8-1 in the Big 12, 0-0 in AQ OOC games and seeking their second quality win of the season.  The UCF Knights are also 11-1, 8-0 in the American Athletic Conference, 1-1 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get their second quality win & first upset win.

The Big 12 is 4-5 in the Fiesta Bowl and 9-11 in BCS bowls.  The AAC (formerly known as the Big East Conference)  is 1-3 in the Fiesta Bowl and 8-7 in BCS bowls.

The Big 12 is 1-1 vs. the AAC in the Fiesta Bowl, 1-2 in BCS bowls, and 15-17 in all games during the BCS era.

Rose Bowl Preview

#4 Michigan State will make its first BCS bowl appearance in the Rose BowlIn the BCS era,  #5 Stanford is 1-1 in the Rose Bowl and 2-2 in all BCS bowls.  The team is 1-1 vs. Big Ten opponents in the BCS era.

The Michigan State Spartans are 12-1, 8-0 in the Big Ten, 1-1 in AQ OOC games this season, and are going for their second quality win.  The Stanford Cardinal is 11-2, 7-2 in the Pac-12, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and is seeking its fifth quality win  and second upset win of the season.

The Pac-12 is 7-5 in the Rose Bowl and 13-7 in BCS bowls.  The Big Ten is 3-9 in the Rose Bowl and 12-14 in BCS bowls.

The Pac-12 is 7-3 against the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, 8-3  in BCS bowls, and 48-35 in all games during the BCS era.

BCS components as predictors of bowl outcomes

In the recent bowl season, there was little variation among the polls and BCS computer systems in how often they ranked a winning bowl team higher.   This is probably due to the fact that there were few games in which two closely-ranked teams faced each other.   Other than in three BCS bowls (BCS NCG, Rose, and Sugar), the difference in the two teams’ rankings was usually substantial.

A cell in the table below has an asterisk (*) to indicate that the component named in the column header ranked the winner of the bowl named in a particular row higher.  In addition to the polls and the six BCS computers systems, Massey‘s Margin OVictory and Sagarin‘s Predictor, which take into account points, have been included.

bowl Harris Coaches A&H B C M S W MOV Predictor
BCS NCG * * * * * * *
Sugar * * * * * *
Fiesta * * * * * * * * * *
Rose * * * * * * * * * *
Orange * * * * * * * * * *
Las Vegas * * * * * * * * * *
Hawaii
Champs Sports *
Insight
Alamo * * * * * * * * * *
Holiday
Liberty * * * * * *
Chick-fil-A *
Capital One * * * * *
Gator * * * * * * * * * *
Cotton * * * * * * * * * *
predicted outcome 10 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 10