Archive for the ‘BCS Bowls’ Category.

BCS NCG preview

In a BCS bowl like no other, two SEC teams will battle for the title in a replay of a regular season game.

#1 LSU, trying to win a third title,  is 1-0 in the BCS NCG and 4-0 in BCS bowls – a record for wins without a loss.  The Tigers are 76-41 vs. the SEC in the BCS era.  #2 Alabama is 1-0 in the BCS NCG and 1-2 in BCS bowls.  The Crimson Tide is 71-44 vs. the SEC in the BCS era.

The LSU Tigers are 13-0, 9-0 in the SEC, 2-0 in AQ OOC games, and seeking their seventh quality win of the season.  The Alabama Crimson Tide is 11-1, 7-1 in the SEC, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and going for a fourth quality win & first upset win.

The SEC will extend its BCS NCG winning streak to six as it starts a losing streak.  The conference will be 16-7 in BCS bowls and 8-1 in BCS title games.

Orange Bowl Preview

#15 Clemson is making its BCS bowl debut in the Orange Bowl.  The Tigers are 0-4 vs. the Big East in the BCS era.  #23 West Virginia is 2-0 in BCS bowls, but has not played in the Orange Bowl previously.  The Mountaineers are 10-10 vs. the Big East in the BCS era.

The Clemson Tigers are 10-3, 7-2 in the ACC, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and seeking their third quality win of the season.  The West Virginia Mountaineers are 9-3, 5-2 in the Big East, 1-1 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get their first quality win & second upset win.

The ACC is 1-8 in the Orange Bowl and 2-11 in BCS bowls.  The Big East is 2-2 in the Orange Bowl and 6-7 in BCS bowls.

The ACC is 1-2 vs. the Big East in the Orange Bowl, 2-2 in BCS bowls, and 61-48 in all games during the BCS era.

Sugar Bowl Preview

#11 Virginia Tech is 0-2 in the Sugar Bowl and 1-4 in BCS bowls.  The Hokies have never faced a Big Ten team in the BCS era.  #13 Michigan is playing in the Sugar Bowl for the first time and is 1-3 in BCS bowls.  The Wolverines are going up against an ACC team for the first time in the BCS era.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are 11-2, 7-2 in the ACC, 0-0 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get their first quality win of the season.  The Michigan Wolverines are 10-2, 6-2 in the Big Ten, 1-0 in AQ OOC games, and seeking their second quality win & second upset win.

The ACC is 1-2 in the Sugar Bowl and 2-11 in BCS bowls.  The Big Ten is 2-1 in the Sugar Bowl and 11-12 in BCS bowls.

The ACC is 0-0 vs. the Big Ten in the Sugar Bowl, 0-2 in BCS bowls, and 15-19 in all games during the BCS era.

Fiesta Bowl Preview

#3 Oklahoma State will make its first BCS bowl appearance.  The Cowboys are 5-2 vs. the Pac-12 in the BCS era.  #4 Stanford is 1-1 in BCS bowls, but has not played in the Fiesta Bowl before.  The Cardinal is 1-2 vs. the Big 12 in the BCS era.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 11-1, 8-1 in the Big 12, 1-0 in AQ OOC games and seeking their fifth quality win of the season.  The Stanford Cardinal is also 11-1, 8-1 in the Pac-12, 2-0 in AQ OOC games, and trying to get its first quality win & first upset win.

The Big 12 is 3-4 in the Fiesta Bowl and 8-10 in BCS bowls.  The Pac-12 is 2-0 in the Fiesta  Bowl and 10-6 in BCS bowls.

The Big 12 is 0-1 vs. the Pac-12 in the Fiesta Bowl, 2-2 in BCS bowls, and 37-33 in all games during the BCS era.

Rose Bowl Preview

#5 Oregon, 1-2 in BCS bowls, lost in its only previous Rose Bowl appearance in the BCS era, which was against Ohio State of the Big Ten. The Ducks are 7-5 vs. Big Ten teams in the BCS era.  #10 Wisconsin is 2-1 in the Rose Bowl (2-0 vs. Pac-12 teams), and has not played in any other BCS bowl.  The Badgers are 9-1 vs. Pac-12 teams in the BCS era.

The Oregon Ducks are 11-2, 9-1 in the Pac-12, 0-1 in AQ OOC games, and are seeking their second quality win of the season.  The Wisconsin Badgers are also 11-2, 7-2 in the Big Ten, 1-0 in AQ OOC games this season, and are going for their fourth quality win & second upset win.

The Pac-12 is 5-5 in the Rose Bowl and 10-6 in BCS bowls.  The Big Ten is 3-7 in the Rose Bowl and 11-12 in BCS bowls.

The Pac-12 is 5-3 against the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, 6-3  in BCS bowls, and 40-32 in all games during the BCS era.

BCS components as predictors of bowl outcomes

In the recent bowl season, there was little variation among the polls and BCS computer systems in how often they ranked a winning bowl team higher.   This is probably due to the fact that there were few games in which two closely-ranked teams faced each other.   Other than in three BCS bowls (BCS NCG, Rose, and Sugar), the difference in the two teams’ rankings was usually substantial.

A cell in the table below has an asterisk (*) to indicate that the component named in the column header ranked the winner of the bowl named in a particular row higher.  In addition to the polls and the six BCS computers systems, Massey‘s Margin OVictory and Sagarin‘s Predictor, which take into account points, have been included.

bowl Harris Coaches A&H B C M S W MOV Predictor
BCS NCG * * * * * * *
Sugar * * * * * *
Fiesta * * * * * * * * * *
Rose * * * * * * * * * *
Orange * * * * * * * * * *
Las Vegas * * * * * * * * * *
Hawaii
Champs Sports *
Insight
Alamo * * * * * * * * * *
Holiday
Liberty * * * * * *
Chick-fil-A *
Capital One * * * * *
Gator * * * * * * * * * *
Cotton * * * * * * * * * *
predicted outcome 10 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 10