Did any BCS component beat flipping a coin?

As seen in this post, the BCS rankings proved to be poor predictors of the outcome of bowl games.  The two polls ranked the winning team higher half the time – in the very same games. Only two of the six BCS computer systems were more effective than flipping a coin.  Two alternate algorithms which take into account points (Sagarin’s Predictor and Massey’s Margin Of Victory) are also included in the table below.  Both picked three more winners than their BCS counterparts.  The other four BCS algorithms are those of Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Collley, and Wolfe.

Every component (and the two points-based systems) had Alabama over Texas, Virginia Tech over Tennessee, Pittsburgh over North Carolina, and USC over Boston College.  No system ranked Boise State over TCU, or Wisconsin over Miami (FL), and only MOV placed Ohio State over Oregon and  Florida State over West Virginia.

bowl Harris Coaches A&H B C M S W MOV Predictor
BCS NCG * * * * * * * * * *
Sugar * * * * *
Fiesta
Rose *
Orange * *
Chick-fil-A * * * * * * * * * *
Capital One * * * * *
Las Vegas * * * * * * * *
Champs Sports
Gator *
Meineke Car Care * * * * * * * * * *
Cotton * * * *
Holiday * * * * * *
Sun * * *
Poinsettia * * * * * * * *
Emerald * * * * * * * * * *
predicted outcome 8 8 7 10 6 10 6 6 13 9

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