BCS components as predictors of bowl outcomes
In the recent bowl season, there was little variation among the polls and BCS computer systems in how often they ranked a winning bowl team higher. This is probably due to the fact that there were few games in which two closely-ranked teams faced each other. Other than in three BCS bowls (BCS NCG, Rose, and Sugar), the difference in the two teams’ rankings was usually substantial.
A cell in the table below has an asterisk (*) to indicate that the component named in the column header ranked the winner of the bowl named in a particular row higher. In addition to the polls and the six BCS computers systems, Massey‘s Margin Of Victory and Sagarin‘s Predictor, which take into account points, have been included.
| bowl | Harris | Coaches | A&H | B | C | M | S | W | MOV | Predictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCS NCG | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | |||
| Sugar | * | * | * | * | * | * | ||||
| Fiesta | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Rose | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Orange | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Las Vegas | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Hawaii | ||||||||||
| Champs Sports | * | |||||||||
| Insight | ||||||||||
| Alamo | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Holiday | ||||||||||
| Liberty | * | * | * | * | * | * | ||||
| Chick-fil-A | * | |||||||||
| Capital One | * | * | * | * | * | |||||
| Gator | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Cotton | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| predicted outcome | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
