BCS components as predictors of bowl outcomes

In the recent bowl season, there was little variation among the polls and BCS computer systems in how often they ranked a winning bowl team higher.   This is probably due to the fact that there were few games in which two closely-ranked teams faced each other.   Other than in three BCS bowls (BCS NCG, Rose, and Sugar), the difference in the two teams’ rankings was usually substantial.

A cell in the table below has an asterisk (*) to indicate that the component named in the column header ranked the winner of the bowl named in a particular row higher.  In addition to the polls and the six BCS computers systems, Massey‘s Margin OVictory and Sagarin‘s Predictor, which take into account points, have been included.

bowl Harris Coaches A&H B C M S W MOV Predictor
BCS NCG * * * * * * *
Sugar * * * * * *
Fiesta * * * * * * * * * *
Rose * * * * * * * * * *
Orange * * * * * * * * * *
Las Vegas * * * * * * * * * *
Hawaii
Champs Sports *
Insight
Alamo * * * * * * * * * *
Holiday
Liberty * * * * * *
Chick-fil-A *
Capital One * * * * *
Gator * * * * * * * * * *
Cotton * * * * * * * * * *
predicted outcome 10 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 10

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